ISSN: 2222-6990
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Dengue fever is an internationally recognised virus that is spread by mosquitoes and can result in death. Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne illness that affects people throughout the world. Dengue fever has been endemic in Malaysia since its breakout in the 1980’s with the state of Selangor having the greatest number of cases. The corona disease (COVID-19), a new pandemic that has swept the globe, like Selangor, has prompted this report on the pattern of dengue cases during COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the new outbreak COVID-19, the Movement Control Order (MCO) has been extended from time to time, and with most health resources at the state and federal levels being used to combat COVID-19, dengue control activities have been limited to a non-contact activity in outbreaks and hotspot areas. The aim of this research is to forecast weekly dengue cases in Selangor for 10 weeks ahead. This study used Additive Holt-Winters and Multiplicative Holt-Winters Models to predict the dengue cases in Selangor. This study was carried out using Excel Solver. The best model was calculated by comparing the Sum Square Error (SSE) Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) measurement errors. Then, the predicted number of dengue cases was calculated using the best model generated. The model for which the values of criteria are the smallest is considered as the best model. The finding in this study indicates that the Multiplicative Holt-Winters Model has the smallest measurement errors compared to the Additive Holt-Winters Model. The forecasted values showed a decreasing number of dengue cases for 10 weeks ahead.
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In-Text Citation: (Mahmud et al., 2022)
To Cite this Article: Mahmud, N., Ali, N. A., Pazil, N. S. M., & Jamaluddin, S. H. (2022). Predicting Dengue Outbreak in Selangor using Holt-Winters Models. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 12(1), 1240–1249.
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