ISSN: 2222-6990
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Life expectancy is an estimate of how long the average person might be expected to live and is most often quoted for an entire lifetime. Forecasting of future life expectancy is needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model based on Box-Jenkins methodology to explain the behavior of Malaysia life expectancy at birth for the purpose of forecasting future life expectancy. Several autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia life expectancy on data collected from year 1966 to year 2016. The data which separated by gender are provided by Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) on yearly basis. The results indicate that both ARIMA(1,1,1) and ARIMA(2,2,3) model performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation for male and female respectively with the least value of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
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In-Text Citation: (Husin & Aziz, 2021)
To Cite this Article: Husin, W. Z. W., & Aziz, N. A. (2021). Box-Jenkins Model for Forecasting Malaysia Life Expectancy. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 11(12), 2492–2502.
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