Journal Screenshot

International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences

Open Access Journal

ISSN: 2222-6990

An Investigation of Economic Growth, Youth Unemployment and Inflation In ASEAN Countries

Yen Vun Fung, Janice L. H. Nga

http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v12-i1/12023

Open access

This study examines the relationship and interaction between youth unemployment (YU), inflation (INFLA), and economic growth (GDP)of ASEAN countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam from 1996 to 2019. This study aims to examine the relationship between youth unemployment, inflation, and economic growth throughout the selected period. The method of Panel Granger Causality test, Panel unit root test, Panel co-integration test, Mean Group and Pooled Mean Group, and MANOVA test was applied in this study. This study found that in the long run youth unemployment has a significant negative impact where the increase in 1percent of youth unemployment will decrease 0.24 percent of economic growth. For inflation, the result stated that inflation also has a positive significant impact in the long run which means that the increase 1percent in inflation, it also improves the economic growth by 0.31percent. As in ASEAN countries, the bidirectional relationship between youth unemployment, inflation and economic growth exist with causality running from youth unemployment and inflation to economic growth in individuals. Lastly, youth unemployment and inflation have an interaction and have a significant effect on economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended that ASEAN countries take the specific policies that are effective and impact youth unemployment, inflation, and economic growth for the ASEAN countries. This research is expected to help enhance youth empowerment quality policies and improve the development of youth employment.

Ademola, A. S., & Badiru, A. (2016). The impact of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria (1981-2014), International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 9(1), 47–55.
Al- Sawaie, K. M. (2020). The relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan: An empirical study using the ARDL approach. International Journal of Innovation, Creativity and Change, 14(2), 1068–1083.
Amadeo K. (2018). What Is Inflation? How It Is Measured and Managed: Why Inflation Is as Violent as a Mugger. Retrieved from https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-inflation-how-it-s-measured-and-managed-3306170
Aminu, U., Manu, D., & Salihu, M. (2013). An empirical investigation into the effect of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria. Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business, 12, 1–14.
Baltagi, B. H., Bresson, G., & Pirotte, A. (2005). Panel unit root tests and spatial dependence, Texas A&M University Working Paper in Economics simple test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–652.
Baltagi, H. B., Kao, C., & Peng, B. (2016). Testing cross-sectional correlation in large panel data models with serial correlation. Journal: Econometrics, 2225-1146(4), 1-24.
Bun, M. J., & Sarafidis, V. (2015). Dynamic Panel Data Models. In B. H. Baltagi (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data (pp. 76-110). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20.
Engle R., & Granger, C. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251±76.
Evanezza M., & Caroline G. (2020). Macroeconomic factors that affecting youth unemployment in Malaysia. MJBE Malaysia Journal of Business and Economics, 7(2), 181-205.
French, A., Macedo, M., Poulsen, J., Waterson, T., & Yu, A. (2008). Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). Retrieved from http://userwww.sfsu.edu/efc/classes/biol710/ manova/manovane west.htm
Friedman, M. (1976). Inflation and Unemployment- Nobel Memorial Lecture. Illinois, USA: The University of Chicago.
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424–438.
Green, D. P. (2010). Using experiments to estimate the effects of education on voter turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 174-189.
Hayes A. (2018). Inflation: What is inflation? Retrieved from https://www.investopedia. com /university/inflation/ inflation1.asp
Hondroyiannis,G. (2010). Fertility determinants and economic uncertainty: An assessment using European panel data. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 31(1), 33–50.
Ihensekhien, O. A., & Ozemhoka, A. M. (2017). Youth unemployment and economic growth: Lesson from low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Economics, Law and Politics, 4(2), 1–15.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
International Labour Organization. (2017). Global Employment Trends for Youth 2017: Paths to a better working future. Retrieved from http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/ groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_598669. pdf
International Labour Organization. (2019). Regional conference on reducing youth unemployment: ASEAN’s response to the future of work in digital economy. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/jakarta/whatwedo/eventsandmeetings/WCMS647645/lang--en/index.htm
International Labour Organization. (2020). Global employment trends for youth 2020: Technology and the future of jobs. Retrieved from
https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/ docume nts / public ation/wcms_ 737648 .pdf
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1–44.
Khan, M. S., & Senhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between in?ation and growth (IMF Working Paper 48) Retrieved from
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000 /wp00110.pdf
Leamer, E. (1983). Let’s take the con out of econometrics. American Economic Review, 73(1), 31–43.
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24.
López-Villavicencio, A., & Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33, 455-464.
Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–652.
O’Higgins, N. (2010). The impact of the economic and financial crisis on youth employment: Measures for labour market recovery in the European Union, Canada and the United States. (Employment Working Paper No. 70).
Okun, A. (1962). Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. In Business and Economic Statistics Section, 98-104. American Statistical Association.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for Cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670.
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series test with an application to the PPP Hypothesis (Working Papers No 2004-15). Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23564877
Pesaran H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panel. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634.
Pesaran, H., & Shin, Y. (1999). Chapter 11: An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press.
Pesaran, H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79–113.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265–312.
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis (Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514). Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Roser, B., Jaume, A., Rafael, A., & Maria, J. B. (2019). Bias, precision, and accuracy of skewness and kurtosis estimators for frequently used continuous distributions. Symmetry 2020, 12(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym12010019
Seleteng, M., Bittencourt, M., & Eyden, R. (2013). Non-linearities in inflation-growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach. Economic Modelling, 30, 149–156.
Vinayagathasan, T. (2013). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 26, 31–41.
White, H. C., Smith, E. B., & Bothner, M. S. (2001). A model of robust positions in social structure. American Journal of Sociology, 116(3).
World Bank. (2020). Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24). Modeled ILO Estimate. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator
Zainul, H., & Hadi, S. (2020). Determinants of youth unemployment rate in Asean. International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research, 9(3), 6687–6691.

In-Text Citation: (Fung & Nga, 2022)
To Cite this Article: Fung, Y. V., & Nga, J. L. H. (2022). An Investigation of Economic Growth, Youth Unemployment and Inflation In ASEAN Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 12(1), 1731–1755.