Macroeconomic Determinants and Forecast of Agricultural Growth in Nigeria

The study analysed the trends of public external debt, domestic private investment, foreign direct investment and agricultural growth; ascertained the direction and growth rate of public external debt, private investment and agricultural growth; and forecast agricultural growth for five years. The result showed that on the average agricultural growth, public external debt, foreign direct investment, gross domestic private investment and labour were 59,869.64 metric tons, USD17.8 billion, USD29.6 billion, USD10.2 billion and 38,246,907 employed persons respectively. The result also showed that the direction of growth of agricultural output (-0.001), public external debt (-0.005) and foreign direct investment (-0.001) were decelerated while gross domestic private investment (0.003) was accelerated and labor stagnated. The result also showed that in the next half decade the agricultural growth will be estimated at 109,097.80 metric tons. Based on the findings from the analysis, it was recommended that the entrepreneurial spirit in the real sector of the economy should be developed to further strengthen private capital participation in agriculture.