Journal Screenshot

International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences

Open Access Journal

ISSN: 2225-8329

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on US Transportation Sector Stock Returns

Adeel Riaz, Ouyang Hongbing, Shujahat Haider Hashmi, Muhammad Asif Khan

http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v8-i4/5500

Open access

Development of transportation sector is a fundamental prerequisite for economic growth, which is sensitive to variations in domestic and international economic policies. In this vein, we investigate how domestic and global economic policy uncertainty affects stock returns of transportation sector firms in the United States. We deploy autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing method to investigate the relationship of monthly returns of Dow Jones Transportation Average with economic policy uncertainty, global economic policy uncertainty, and other macroeconomic factors. Our findings suggest that economic policy uncertainty at the national and international level negatively influences the stock returns of the transportation sector. The paper also demonstrates a positive effect of industrial production and consumer’s confidence on returns of U.S. transportation sector. The empirical findings offer useful policy implications to the stakeholders of the US transportation sector.

1. Aizenman, J., & Marion, N. P. (1993). Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth. Review of International Economics.
2. Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., & Filis, G. (2013). Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty. Economics Letters, 120(1), 87–92.
3. Arouri, M., Estay, C., Rault, C., & Roubaud, D. (2016). Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US. Finance Research Letters, 18, 136–141.
4. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636.
5. Bloom, N., Bond, S., & Van Reenen, J. (2007). Uncertainty and investment dynamics. Review of Economic Studies.
6. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., & Figueres, J. M. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach. Economics Letters, 151, 31–34.
7. Hedi Arouri, M. El, & Khuong Nguyen, D. (2010). Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4528–4539.
8. Humpe, A., Macmillan, P., Humpe, A., & Macmillan, P. (2009). Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements?? A comparison of the US and Japan Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements?? A comparison of the US and Japan, 3107.
9. Kang, W., Lee, K., & Ratti, R. A. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39(PA), 42–53.
10. Kang, W., & Ratti, R. A. (2013). Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty. Economic Modelling, 35, 314–319.
11. Kang, W., & Ratti, R. A. (2015). Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China. Economics of Transition, 23(4), 657–676.
12. Kennedy, P. (1993). A guide to econometrics. Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(2), 402–403.
13. Liu, L., & Zhang, T. (2015). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility. Finance Research Letters, 15, 99–105.
14. Lütkepohl, H. (2006). Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis for Cointegrated Variables. In Modern Econometric Analysis (pp. 73–86). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
15. Ozoguz, A. (2009). Good Times or Bad Times? Investors’ Uncertainty and Stock Returns. Review of Financial Studies, 22(11), 4377–4422.
16. Pástor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2012). Uncertainty about {Government} {Policy} and {Stock} {Prices}. The Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1219–1264.
17. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
18. Phan, D. H. B., Sharma, S. S., & Tran, V. T. (2018). Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 55, 134–150.
19. Sarel, M. (1992). The effects of inflation on economic growth. Lessons from Latin America. European Economic Review, 36(2–3), 417–425.
20. Schwert, G. W. (1990). Stock Returns and Real Activity?: A Century of Evidence, XLV(4), 1237–1257.
21. Scott R. Baker, Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(June), 1593–1636.
22. Statman, M., & Fisher, K. L. (2002). Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns. Ssrn, (August).
23. Sum, V. (2012a). The Reaction of Stock Markets in the BRIC Countries to Economic Policy Uncertainty in the United States. Ssrn, 1–15.
24. Sum, V. (2012b). The Reaction of Stock Markets in the BRIC Countries to Economic Policy Uncertainty in the United States. Ssrn, 32(4), 512–521.
25. Timilsina, G. R., & Shrestha, A. (2009). Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options. Energy Policy, 37(11), 4523–4539.
26. Tsai, I. C. (2017). The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty. Economic Modelling, 60(August 2016), 122–131.
27. Wu, T. P., Li

Riaz, A., Hongbing, O., Hashmi, S.H. Khan, M.A. (2018). The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on US Transportation Sector Stock Returns, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences 8 (4): 163-170.