ISSN: 2226-3624
Open access
Purpose: This study aims to examine how strategic foresight and scenario planning enhance futures thinking among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia. Drawing upon the Dynamic Capability Theory (DCT), the research conceptualizes strategic foresight as a sensing capability, scenario planning as a seizing and transforming mechanism, and futures thinking as a higher-order strategic competency. The study seeks to explain how these interrelated capabilities help SMEs strengthen adaptability, resilience, and long-term preparedness in uncertain environments. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative, cross-sectional design is adopted, supported by a preliminary qualitative study with SME leaders. Data will be collected through a structured questionnaire from decision-makers in manufacturing and services SMEs. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) will test the hypothesized relationships. Findings: The study is expected to show that strategic foresight and scenario planning both positively influence futures thinking, while their interaction further strengthens this effect. SMEs that apply structured foresight and scenario planning are anticipated to demonstrate higher adaptability, preparedness, and resilience in uncertain environments. Research limitations/implications: The focus on Malaysian SMEs and the cross-sectional design may limit generalizability and causal inference. Future studies should adopt longitudinal approaches or extend the model across regions and industries. Practical implications: Findings will guide SME leaders and policymakers in embedding foresight and scenario planning into strategic processes to enhance competitiveness and readiness for future challenges. Originality/value: This study offers an integrated DCT-based framework linking foresight, scenario planning, and futures thinking, providing new insights into cognitive and strategic capabilities in SMEs.
Adegbile, A., Sarpong, D., & Meissner, D. (2017). Strategic foresight for innovation management: A review and research agenda. International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, 14(04), 1750019.
Al-Ghazali, B. M., Gelaidan, H. M., Shah, S. H. A., & Amjad, R. (2022). Green transformational leadership and green creativity? The mediating role of green thinking and green organizational identity in SMEs. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 977998.
AlQershi, N. (2024), “Strategic thinking, strategic planning, strategic innovation and the performance of SMEs: the mediating role of human capital”, Management Science and Education Innovations, Vol. 1 No. 19.
AlQershi, N. (2024). Strategic thinking, strategic planning, strategic innovation and the performance of SMEs: The mediating role of human capital. Management Science and Education Innovations, 1(19).
Andersen, P. D., & Haines, M. B. (2023). National cultures and traditions in foresight and futures studies. In Scenario Planning and Foresight 2023: Advancing Theory and Improving Practice (pp. 45-46).
Behl, A., Gaur, J., Pereira, V., Yadav, R., & Laker, B. (2022). Role of big data analytics capabilities to improve sustainable competitive advantage of MSME service firms during COVID-19–A multi-theoretical approach. Journal of business research, 148, 378-389.
Behl, A., Pereira, V., Yadav, R., & Singh, R. (2022). Assessing the impact of artificial intelligence and big data analytics capabilities on the performance of small and medium enterprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 180, 121688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121688
Bianchi, C., & Testa, F. (2022). Fostering sustainable development in small and medium-sized enterprises: The role of dynamic capabilities. Journal of Cleaner Production, 356, 131838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131838
Bianchi, G., & Testa, F. (2022). How can SMEs effectively embed environmental sustainability? Evidence on the relationships between cognitive frames, life cycle management and organizational learning process. Business Ethics, the Environment & Responsibility, 31(3), 634-648.
Braun, V. and Clarke, V. (2006), Using thematic analysis in psychology, Qualitative Research in Psychology, Vol. 3 No. 2, pp. 77–101.
Capatina, A., Bleoju, G., & Kalisz, D. (2024). Falling in love with strategic foresight, not only with technology: European deep-tech startups’ roadmap to success. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 9(3), 100515.
Carayannis, E. G., Dumitrescu, R., Falkowski, T., Papamichail, G., & Zota, N. R. (2025). Enhancing SME resilience through artificial intelligence and strategic foresight: A framework for sustainable competitiveness. Technology in Society, 81, 102835.
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Cordova-Pozo, K. and Rouwette, E.A. (2023), “Types of scenario planning and their effectiveness: A review of reviews”, Futures, Vol. 149, p. 103153.
Cordova-Pozo, K., & Rouwette, E. A. (2023). Types of scenario planning and their effectiveness: A review of reviews. Futures, 149, 103153.
Cornelisse, M., & van Klink, A. (2024). Strategic Foresight and Barriers: The Application of Scenario Planning in SMEs. Journal of Futures Studies, 29(2), 35-43.
Curnin, S., Brooks, B., & Brooks, O. (2022). Assessing the influence of individual creativity, perceptions of group decision-making and structured techniques on the quality of scenario planning. Futures, 144, 103057.
Dixit, S., Singh, S., Dhir, S., & Dhir, S. (2021). Antecedents of strategic thinking and its impact on competitive advantage. Journal of Indian Business Research, 13(4), 437-458.
Fergnani, A. (2022). Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management. Academy of Management Perspectives, 36(2), 820-844.
Gold, J. and Jones, O. (2023), “Finding innovation opportunities in SMEs through futures and foresight learning: an action learning approach”, Action Learning: Research and Practice, Vol. 20 No. 2, pp. 132–148.
Gold, J., & Jones, O. (2023). Finding innovation opportunities in SMEs through futures and foresight learning: an action learning approach. Action Learning: research and practice, 20(2), 132-148.
Habicher, D., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., Ghirardello, L., & Walder, M. (2021). Transformation and Design Thinking: perspectives on sustainable change, company resilience and democratic leadership in SMEs. Leadership, Education, Personality: An Interdisciplinary Journal, 3(2), 145-156.
Hajizadeh, A., & Valliere, D. (2022). Entrepreneurial foresight: Discovery of future opportunities. Futures, 135, 102876.
Hu, M. K., & Kee, D. M. H. (2022). Fostering sustainability: reinventing SME strategy in the new normal. foresight, 24(3/4), 301-318.
Iden, J., Methlie, L. B., & Christensen, G. E. (2017). The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 87-97.
Jones, M. D., Hutcheson, S., & Camba, J. D. (2021). Past, present, and future barriers to digital transformation in manufacturing: A review. Journal of Manufacturing Systems, 60, 936-948.
Ködding, P., Koldewey, C., & Dumitrescu, R. (2023). Scenario-based foresight in the age of digital technologies and AI. In New Digital Work: Digital Sovereignty at the Workplace (pp. 51-67). Springer.
Mesa, D., Renda, G., Gorkin III, R., Kuys, B., & Cook, S. M. (2022). Implementing a design thinking approach to de-risk the digitalisation of manufacturing SMEs. Sustainability, 14(21), 14358.
Mesa, D., Renda, G., Gorkin, R. III, Kuys, B. and Cook, S.M. (2022), “Implementing a design thinking approach to de-risk the digitalisation of manufacturing SMEs”, Sustainability, Vol. 14 No. 21, p. 14358.
Moqaddamerad, S., & Ali, M. (2024). Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 200, 123095.
Nguyen, B., Simkin, L., Canhoto, A. I., & Phan, A. C. (2022). SME marketing in emerging economies: Challenges, practices, and research agenda. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 34(4), 1223–1245. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-10-2021-1245
Nguyen, D. N., Tran, Q.-N., & Truong, Q.-T. (2022). The ownership concentration? Innovation nexus: Evidence from SMEs around the world. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58(5), 1288-1307.
Ramírez, R., Bhatti, Y. and Tapinos, E. (2020), “Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 151, p. 119785.
Ramírez, R., Bhatti, Y., & Tapinos, E. (2020). Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119785.
Ramírez, R., Mukherjee, M., Vezzoli, S., & Kramer, A. M. (2020). Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research.” Futures, 117, 102514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102514
Rohrbeck, R. and Kum, M.E. (2018), “Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 129, pp. 105–116.
Rohrbeck, R., & Kum, M. E. (2018). Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 129, 105–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013
Rohrbeck, R., Thom, N., & Arnold, H. (2015). IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 115-126.
Schilke, O., Hu, S., & Helfat, C. E. (2018). Quo vadis, dynamic capabilities? A content-analytic review of the current state of knowledge and recommendations for future research. Academy of Management Annals, 12(1), 390–439. https://doi.org/10.5465/annals.2016.0014.
Schwarz, M., Scherrer, A., Hohmann, C., Heiberg, J., Brugger, A., & Nuñez-Jimenez, A. (2020). COVID-19 and the academy: It is time for going digital. Energy research & social science, 68, 101684.
Schwarz, M., Scherrer, A., Hohmann, C., Heiberg, J., Brugger, A., & Nuñez-Jimenez, A. (2020). COVID-19 and the academy: It is time for going digital. Energy research & social science, 68, 101684.
Streit, J. M., Felknor, S. A., Edwards, N. T., & Howard, J. (2021). Leveraging strategic foresight to advance worker safety, health, and well-being. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(16), 8477.
Streit, J.M., Felknor, S.A., Edwards, N.T. and Howard, J. (2021), “Leveraging strategic foresight to advance worker safety, health, and well-being”, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18 No. 16, p. 8477.
Teece, D. J. (2007). Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic Management Journal, 28(13), 1319-1350.
Teece, D. J. (2007). Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic management journal, 28(13), 1319-1350.
Teece, D. J., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic management journal, 18(7), 509-533.
Halim, H. A., Hanifah, H. M., Ahmad, N. H., Thurasamy, R., & Waqas, A. (2026). The Role of Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning in Enhancing Futures Thinking among SMEs: A Dynamic Capability Perspective. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 15(1), 474–491.
Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s)
Published by HRMARS (www.hrmars.com)
This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this license may be seen at: http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode